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  • Beware of the gray rhino

    2007年，正當美國發生的金融海嘯急速演變之際，時任衍生工具交易員兼作家塔利伯（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）的著作《黑天鵝效應》（The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable）面世。「黑天鵝」一詞，是指一些出現概率非常低，事前無從估計，但影響極為巨大的事件。作者認為影響世界的許多大事，其實都是黑天鵝事件，並批評學術界和風險管理的專家，往往忽略概率分布中極端可能性的重要性。當時百年一遇的金融海嘯，正是一次黑天鵝事件，該書出版合時，自然洛陽紙貴。

    Stephen Y CHIU
    Stephen Y CHIU
    admin

    ·

  • Hong Kong-Shenzhen collaboration brings strong synergy

    在深圳經濟特區建立40周年慶祝大會上，國家主席習近平發表講話，提及深圳是粵港澳大灣區的重要引擎及其在大灣區的領導地位將更提升，卻無觸及香港對深圳及全國改革開放的貢獻，有人認為這等於將香港邊緣化；其實香港在深圳改革開放的歷史軌跡中，一直佔着舉足輕重的地位，港商早期已在當地投資，時至今日，香港特區仍然是深圳最大的外資來源地，在當地經營的香港企業為數共約8萬。 正當國家面對嚴峻國際局勢、本港經濟持續衰退，評論與其突顯港深之間競爭，不如聚焦香港如何繼續借助「一國兩制」的獨特優勢，與深圳進一步攜手合作，在大灣區發展互補共榮。

    Maurice K.S. Tse
    Maurice K.S. Tse
    admin

    ·

  • Capitalisation of property taxes

    The article 《物業稅的資本化》 was originally published in Hong Kong Economic Journal column 「龍虎山下」

    Stephen Ching
    Stephen Ching
    admin

    ·

  • How far can the US National Debt continue to surge?

    The article 《美國國債能持續擴大多少？》was originally published in Hong Kong Economic Journal column 「龍虎山下」

    Y. F. Luk
    Y. F. Luk
    admin

    ·

  • Hong Kong’s third economic transformation – What are we waiting for?

    The article 《香港第三次經濟轉型，還等什麼?》 was originally published in Hong Kong Economic Journal column 「龍虎山下」

    Heiwai TANG
    Heiwai TANG
    admin

    ·

  • Fight poverty with entrepreneurship

    香港經濟面臨嚴峻困境，令人憂慮貧窮問題勢將變本加厲。 2018年，全港貧窮人口為140.6萬，在恆常現金政策介入後，則降至102.4萬，其中90,100人為18–29歲青年，佔整體貧窮人口8.8%，比率更在過去3年持續上升【註】。政府為此於2016年設立青年發展基金及青少年空間共享計劃，2017及2018年施政報告亦提出加強對年青人追求創新和創業的支援，並鼓勵年青人開拓境外（如大灣區）的發展機會。

    Maurice K.S. Tse
    Maurice K.S. Tse
    admin

    ·

  • The 70 years Theory of Games

    The article 《博弈論 七十年》 was originally published in Hong Kong Economic Journal column…

    Stephen Y CHIU
    Stephen Y CHIU
    admin

    ·

  • The future of robotics, AI and employment

    The article 《機械人技術 人工智能和就業的未來》 was originally published in Hong Kong Economic Journal column…

    Yuk-fai Fong
    Yuk-fai Fong
    admin

    ·

The Survival Guide for All in the Post AI-Era – From Individual Planning to Corporate Strategy

AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is the AI that could learn, decide and execute, and we are already in its early days.  Just this week, Meta has rolled out its agent Muse, and quite a few service-based digital platforms have seen their stock price drop in the US stock market.  Its related conversation has shifted from “what if” to “how fast,” and the answer is unsettling.

Joseph CHAN
Joseph CHAN

·

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The Survival Guide for All in the Post AI-Era – From Individual Planning to Corporate Strategy

From Anti-Dumping to Trade Wars: Past, Present, and Future of Trade Policy and Disputes

US-China Economic and Trade Negotiations Help Manage Disagreements, but Industry-Level Trade Disputes Will Not Automatically Disappear. Since last year’s Busan summit and President Trump’s visit to China in May this year, both sides have continued to advance dialogue.

Haishi LI
Haishi LI

·

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From Anti-Dumping to Trade Wars: Past, Present, and Future of Trade Policy and Disputes

With AI boosting productivity, what’s still holding companies back?

As AI and intelligent systems improve, the time for companies to generate a quote using AI has been shortened from half a day to just a few minutes; however, customers may still have to wait a week to receive the quote.

Weiming Zhu
Weiming Zhu

·

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With AI boosting productivity, what’s still holding companies back?

Review Manipulation and Filtering on Digital Platforms

Could a fake one-star review help a business? Online consumer reviews make or break digital sales. Filtering out the fakes has been an ongoing headache for platforms such as Amazon and Google, but our recent study of the Apple App Store surprisingly shows that negative fake reviews are pushing targeted apps higher up the charts. What, then, are the lessons for digital platforms, app developers, and users?

Jingcun CAO
Jingcun CAO

Yulin FANG
Yulin FANG

·

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Review Manipulation and Filtering on Digital Platforms

Higher Baselines, Unbounded Ceilings: Four Forces Driving AI’s Great Divergence

People hope that the development of AI will make capabilities more accessible across all levels. In reality, AI is, on the one hand, making ordinary capabilities more uniform, while on the other hand raising the ceiling for exceptional capabilities. The floor of ability is being lifted, while the ceiling of ability is disappearing.

Jin LI
Jin LI

·

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Higher Baselines, Unbounded Ceilings: Four Forces Driving AI’s Great Divergence

Multinational production and global shock propagation during the Great Recession

Did the Great Recession leave us with unresolved questions? If most people think the 2008 trade collapse was all about falling demand, it may be time to reconsider. Our recent study identifies an important but overlooked mechanism: global productivity shocks drove multinational production down, and because multinationals are highly trade intensive, their decline affected global trade to a similar extent. Instead of buffering the blow, these multinationals inadvertently transmitted headquarters country productivity shocks across borders, deepening GDP declines in countries that relied on them most. Understanding this transmission channel is important for strengthening resilience ahead of future global disruptions.

Haishi LI
Haishi LI

·

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Multinational production and global shock propagation during the Great Recession

AI adoption and human value within organizations

Is artificial intelligence coming for your job? A recent study from HKU Business School on nearly 3,000 Chinese-listed firms reveals a surprising twist: AI is not replacing the general workforce but giving them a raise. Higher AI adoption increases labor income share and actively shrinks the corporate pay gap. But to make the most of it, organizations must overcome one major bottleneck…

Kevin Zheng ZHOU
Kevin Zheng ZHOU

·

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AI adoption and human value within organizations

How the Age of AI Scams Is Reshaping Digital Trust

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly proliferating and is simultaneously changing both the methods of fraud and approaches to fraud prevention. Fraudsters can now create highly realistic fake content at lower cost and greater speed, impersonating relatives, friends, supervisors, investment experts, or even government agencies to trick targets into transferring funds, disclosing sensitive information, or approving high-risk transactions.

Maurice K.S. Tse
Maurice K.S. Tse

·

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How the Age of AI Scams Is Reshaping Digital Trust

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