While AI Knocking at the Door, What Will Music Industry Answer?

In 2023, AI has generated over 100million songs, and it is estimated AI will take over 50% of the music market by 2030. AI technology has opened up a new era in music creation, allowing anyone to generate music through a few text commands, challenging the music industries. However, the record companies shouldn’t reject AI.…


Dr Tingting Fan

4 December 2024

When we listen to music through our earphones these days, do we realize that over 30% of it is already produced by AI? Last year, the AI-generated song “Heart on My Sleeve” got 20 million hits on Spotify. Early this year, the burgeoning AI-generated music scene drove Universal Music, the world’s leading music company, to remove all its records from TikTok, the largest platform for short-form mobile videos. After the two companies reached an agreement in mid-2024, TikTok agrees to label all AI music footage accordingly. The impact of AI technology on the music industry has been fast and furious.

Cause for celebration or concern

With the progress in AI technology, major technology companies have extended their reach over the music industry. For example, the text-to-music model named MusicGen was launched by Meta to users in 2023. The Stable Audio 2.0 model, introduced by Stability AI this year, even allows users to upload existing music to generate new tracks in a completely different style. The acoustic quality is comparable to that of a vinyl record.

It is a cause for celebration because AI enables ordinary people, who are not music professionals, to not only “create” music with ease but also earn money from these “creative” works. Boomy, an American start-up, supports users in uploading their AI-generated music to Spotify and other streaming platforms for a commission.

That being said, it is a cause for concern because if music can be “created” by an AI model, would professional musicians find themselves out of a job? Given the five consecutive months of protest from Hollywood actors and screenwriters in 2023, the looming fear is clear as day.

As a matter of fact, the great concern is not unjustified. In 2017, 87% of music tracks played on Spotify were from singers signed with record labels. By 2022, this percentage fell to 75%. As of 2023, over 100 million pieces of music were generated by AI, taking up around 30% of our music-listening time. The revenue generated by the AI music market is projected by industry members to reach US$7 billion by 2026, while AI music is expected to have a 50% share of the music sector by 2030.

Quantity or quality

At present, the advantages of AI-generated music lie in speed and quantity. Boomy claims that in just a few years, there are already 18 million pieces of AI-generated music, whereas only 100 million pieces of old and new music spanning all time periods have found their way to Spotify so far. Nevertheless, does the quality of AI-composed music rival that of the creative works by professional musicians? So far, the works created by AI have been based on past music. With the rapid growth in quantity, the quality of AI-generated music will eventually regress to the mean. When the excitement over this new technology wears off for the public, will people tire of AI-produced music and turn to works by music artists? Alternatively, one wonders if a “scientific division of labour” is possible, whereby AI-generated music serves as low-cost background music while the concert stage is reserved for music artists’ works to shine.

When it comes to people’s requirements for music, quantity and quality are never mutually exclusive. Striking a balance between the two is something that both AI companies and music artists should explore.

As a matter of fact, both music artists and record companies, which rely on music copyrights to survive, are on the receiving end of AI-generated music’s vexing challenge. The music works owned by record companies provide the raw materials for AI models to “create” new music after learning their characteristics. But should AI companies be obliged to pay royalties for these raw materials? And should AI-created music be under copyright protection?

Recent years have seen increasing challenges arising from these issues. In 2023, for instance, Universal Music accused Anthropic, an AI company with investments from Google and Amazon of illegally using works owned by Universal Music to train Anthropic’s AI models. In its defence, the company claims that using existing music to train AI models does not constitute copyright infringement.

Challenge or opportunity

Since advancements in AI technology have far outpaced developments in intellectual-property laws, these problems without quick solutions have become a grey area, presenting both challenges and opportunities for record companies and AI technology companies. In retrospect, this is not the first time music publishers have encountered copyright challenges. The late 20th century saw the migration of music from CDs to electronic MP3 files, which, coupled with the rise of sharing platforms like Napster, led to rampant pirated music that pushed many record companies out of business. It took an entire decade for record companies to develop a business model more profitable than the traditional approach of selling CDs and to eventually reach agreements with music streaming platforms regarding music copyright.

Taking lessons from history and embracing the unstoppable trend of AI music, record companies no longer regard it as an uncontrollable beast. Instead, they are striving to devise a new business model that can enable music copyrights to bring greater profit in the AI era. Robert Kyncl, CEO of Warner Music Group, once says that simply rejecting AI and fighting against it is out of the question. In promoting legal definition and protection of music copyright, record companies actively use AI to facilitate music creation by professional artists in cheaper and faster ways on the one hand. For example, AI is harnessed to produce multilingual versions of podcasts for the enjoyment of audiences around the world. Machine learning has even been used to extract a muddled demo song left behind by the Beatles’ lead singer, John Lennon, in 1973. The recent release not only gave new life to the song “Now and Then” but also reignited enthusiasm for their Beatles’ classic ballads. On the other hand, AI models are also trained to precisely detect copyright-infringing music for litigation purposes, if necessary. Additionally, record companies may even roll out a two-pronged carrot-and-stick strategy to protest against copyright infringement by AI companies while leveraging their advantage as copyright owners to become market pioneers through closer cooperation with AI companies.

Two centuries ago, the Fate Symphony strikes a chord with us, helping us to empathize with Beethoven’s struggle against destiny after losing his hearing. Two centuries later, if Beethoven came back to life, could AI restore his hearing to inspire him to compose even more masterpieces for posterity? Two hundred years ago, through musical notes, Beethoven issued the rallying cry: “Listen! Fate is knocking at the door!” Today, two hundred years later, hopefully the door opened by AI will lead to a new era of human creativity!

Translation
今天當我們戴上耳機聆聽音樂時,會否意識到超過30%的音樂已經是由AI生成的?從去年一首AI生成歌曲Heart on My Sleeve在Spotify上一舉獲得逾2000萬的點擊,到今年年初,最大唱片公司環球唱片(Universal Music)因為AI音樂泛濫,而把旗下所有音樂從最大手機短視頻平台TikTok上撤銷,再到今年年中環球唱片和TikTok達成協議,後者同意在所有AI音樂視頻上加上「AI音樂」的標籤,AI技術對音樂產業的影響來勢洶洶。

是喜還是憂?


隨着AI技術的發展,各大科技公司的觸角已經深入到音樂行業。比如,Meta公司去年推出的MusicGen模型可以根據用戶輸入的文字生成音樂,而另一家公司Stability AI在今年推出的Stable Audio 2.0模型更允許用戶上傳現成的音樂,從而生成風格迥異的新音樂,音效甚至堪比黑膠唱片。

喜的是,AI讓非音樂專業出身的普通人不僅可以輕輕鬆鬆「創作」音樂,甚至還可以利用這些「創作」獲得額外的收入。美國一家初創公司Boomy允許用戶將其利用AI模型生成的音樂上載到Spotify等音樂串流平台,從而賺取佣金。

但憂的是,如果音樂可以被AI模型「創造」出來,那專業音樂人會否就此失業?從去年荷里活演員和劇作家對AI持續了5個月的抗議,不難看出這種憂慮已迫在眉睫。

事實上,這種憂慮也並非空穴來風。2017年Spotify上播放的音樂中,有87%是來自唱片公司的簽約歌手,但是到了2022年這個比率下降到了75%。截至2023年,AI已經生成了超過一億首樂曲,大概佔據了我們30%傾聽音樂的時間。業界人士預計,AI音樂的市場收益將會在2026年達到70億美元;到2030年,AI音樂將佔據50%的音樂市場份額。

數量抑或質素?


目前AI生成音樂的優勢在於速度和數量。美國初創公司Boomy聲稱,短短幾年AI生成樂曲已多達1800萬首;相比之下,Spotify上縱貫古今的曲目也只有一億首。可是,AI生成的音樂質素是否可以媲美專業音樂人的創作呢?目前AI的「創作」是基於過去的音樂,隨着數量的迅速增長,其質素會回歸平均(Regression to the mean);而當大眾對新技術的新鮮感退潮後,對AI生成的音樂會否感到厭煩,轉而追捧音樂人的創作?又或者,AI生成音樂和音樂人的原創音樂是否可以「科學分工」,比如AI生成音樂可以作為成本較低的背景音樂,而音樂人的創作則在演唱會舞台上熠熠生輝。

人們對於數量和質素的要求,從來都不是捨此棄彼,如何優勢互補,值得AI公司和音樂人共同探索。

對AI生成音樂感到頭痛的,不僅僅有音樂人,更有靠音樂版權為生的唱片公司。AI模型之所以可以「創造」音樂,依賴的原材料就是現有唱片公司旗下的音樂。模型學習了這些音樂的特點,從而「創造」新的音樂。但是AI公司是否需要為這些原材料付版權費?AI創造出來的音樂,是否也應該受版權保護?

近年來,對這些問題的挑戰層出不窮。比如去年,環球唱片指控一家由亞馬遜和谷歌投資的AI公司Anthropic非法使用旗下的音樂,來訓練AI模型。Anthropic公司則聲稱使用現有的音樂訓練AI模型,不屬於盜版侵權。

挑戰還是機會?


由於AI技術的發展速度遠遠超過了現行知識產權法例的進展,這些無法迅速解決的問題,就成為了灰色地帶,為唱片公司和AI科技公司既帶來挑戰,也提供機會。回顧歷史,這不是唱片公司第一次遇到科技對版權的挑戰。早在二十世紀末,當音樂從CD變成MP3電子檔案,加上Napster等共享檔案平台的興起,盜版音樂泛濫讓不少唱片公司幾近關門大吉。唱片業花了10年時間,才開發出比傳統售賣CD更加有利可圖的商業模式,並最終與音樂串流平台在音樂版權上達成協議。

以史為鑑,隨着AI音樂勢不可擋,唱片公司不再視其為洪水猛獸,而是努力尋找新的商業模式,讓音樂版權在AI時代可帶來更大收益。華納音樂集團CEO Robert Kyncl曾表示:「我們不會簡單粗暴地拒絕阻止AI。」在推動音樂版權的法律界定和保護措施的同時,積極利用AI,一方面協助專業音樂人以更低成本、更快速度創作音樂,比如運用AI將播客(Podcasts)內容轉換成不同語言,讓不同國度的聽眾一飽耳福,甚至利用機器學習模型將披頭四主唱John Lennon在1973年留下的一首模糊音樂demo提取出來,不僅在50年後的今天「復活」了這首Now and Then,還讓披頭四的經典歌曲重新火了一把;另一方面,也訓練AI模型來精準定位侵權音樂,在必要時提出法律訴訟。更有甚者,使出「蘿蔔加大棒」的策略,一邊抗議AI公司侵權,一邊推進與AI公司合作,利用其版權優勢搶佔市場先機。

兩百年前,一曲《命運交響曲》讓我們感受到雙耳失聰的貝多芬對命運的抗爭;兩百年後的今天,如果貝多芬復活,AI是否可以化為他的耳朵,促發他的靈感,為我們帶來更多傳世佳作?兩百年前,貝多芬用音符吶喊出:「聽!命運在敲門!」兩百年後的今天,希望AI敲開的是人類創造力之門!

本欄逢周三刊登

范亭亭博士
港大經管學院市場學首席講師