Reflections on the Essence of Stablecoin Economics

Typically issued by private institutions, stablecoins are digital currencies that are pegged one-to-one to a fiat currency or collateralized by a reference asset. Currently, 99% of the world’s stablecoins are backed by the US dollar and US dollar-denominated assets, with USDT and USDC dominating the global market and accounting for a combined circulating supply worth…


Typically issued by private institutions, stablecoins are digital currencies that are pegged one-to-one to a fiat currency or collateralized by a reference asset. Currently, 99% of the world’s stablecoins are backed by the US dollar and US dollar-denominated assets, with USDT and USDC dominating the global market and accounting for a combined circulating supply worth more than US$220 billion. Circle has completed its listing in the US. Subsequent to the passage of the Stablecoins Bill in Hong Kong on 21 May 2025, the Stablecoin Ordinance will officially come into effect on 1 August 2025. In America, the enactment of the GENIUS Act on 18 July 2025 signifies further progress toward the legalization of stablecoins in the country.

Regulatory arbitrage in payments spurred by blockchain technology

Thanks to public blockchain consensus mechanisms and smart contracts, transactions can now be made on a regulation-free and anonymous basis for the first time. The general ledger and transaction records are completely open and transparent on public blockchains. Users can have addresses without undergoing a real-name registration system and are free to transfer tokens that hold some economic value. In contrast, users of traditional account systems must register with their real names and go through compliance examinations beforehand while transaction records are kept by financial institutions. At present, unlicensed stablecoins are primarily collateralized by US dollar-denominated assets held as reserves in less regulated jurisdictions. Decentralized blockchain networks are then utilized to provide payment services in highly-regulated jurisdictions. For example, stablecoins are used as the base currency in bitcoin and derivative contract transactions to achieve cross-border regulatory arbitrage. Since stablecoins can be freely transferred on public blockchains, they may be used for tax avoidance, anonymous payments, capital-control evasion, or even by fraud syndicates. For instance, on 25 June 2025, a Mainland online investment platform known as Xinkangjia DGCX leveraged USDT to transfer over RMB10 billion overseas.

Stablecoins, cash (gold), and regulatory flexibility

Another common anonymous payment method of value transfer is through tangible assets, such as cash and gold. Let us compare this with stablecoins. First of all, contrary to cash, which cannot be transported over long distances or across national borders in large amounts, stablecoins harness blockchain technology to achieve high-speed transfer in cash anywhere across the world. Secondly, unlike cash, stablecoins, with their programmability, allow for widespread use in decentralized lending and transactions, completing automated exchanges in accordance with smart contracts. However, since the data of token transfer on blockchains is open and transparent, and addresses can be traced and frozen, stablecoins are inferior to cash in terms of anonymity. The more exchange addresses that are connected to a blockchain address, the more likely the identity of the address owner will be known to their counterparties, thus diminishing the anonymity of transactions. The offline transfer of banknotes and gold, which leaves no records, is much harder to trace than transfers conducted on blockchains. The rapid growth of unlicensed, blockchain-based fiat currencies has made it necessary for regulators to introduce laws for compliant, licensed stablecoins. The regulatory consensus concerns the requirements for stablecoins’ reference assets (for example, the GENIUS Act stipulates only US dollars or US Treasury bonds). Nonetheless, it remains a contentious issue as to who can use stablecoins. Allowing free transfers on public blockchains without identity verification or restrictions makes it difficult to combat criminal activities and regulate arbitrage. Adopting the same KYC processes as banks would contradict the decentralization principle of blockchain, rendering stablecoins a redundant innovation. To address the impact from blockchain, it is imperative for licensed stablecoins to identify a flexible regulatory approach that balances optimized transaction efficiency with prevention of illicit activities.

Stablecoins are far from novel

As early as 2002, Tencent launched QQ Coins, pegged 1:1 to the onshore RMB, providing a pragmatic solution to the challenges of inadequate and inconvenient online payments in China. Users can top up their accounts via QQ Coins and freely transfer and make payments within the Tencent ecosystem. Linked with Tencent’s internal products like QQ membership and Tencent games as the sole payment method, QQ Coins became a general equivalent that serves as a means of exchange for game items. Furthermore, QQ Coins were used by users to buy offline products and pay wages, while Internet cafes began to offer account top-up with QQ Coin-to-RMB exchange services. The development of an RMB stablecoin in the form of Tencent QQ Coins ended on 15 February 2007, when 14 authorities jointly issued the Notice on Further Strengthening Administration of Internet Cafes and Online Games (see Note). This document clearly stated that there was a growing trend of virtual currencies in online games exerting an adverse impact on the national economic and financial order. Therefore, the use of virtual currencies issued by online game operators to purchase tangible goods was prohibited, as was the resale of such virtual currencies. The Notice effectively blocked exchanges between QQ Coins and RMB. In the absence of secondary transactions and an exchange market, QQ Coins failed to become an RMB stablecoin. Yet the emergence of blockchains has made it impossible for stablecoins to be simply banned by any single country.

Practical applications of stablecoins: non-compliance and compliance

Actually, the history of QQ Coins’ development exactly mirrors that of USDT and USDC. The stablecoins currently in circulation were originally designed to resolve the thorny issue of capital flows at cryptocurrency exchanges, as banks refused to provide deposit or capital flow channels due to the non-compliant nature of cryptocurrency transactions. In addition, the surge in value and the proliferation of high-leverage contracts for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin continued to attract new participants to the market. Take Circle’s USDC as an example. It was integrated with Coinbase, while USDT could be freely used on exchanges OKX and Binance. The combination of a robust crypto exchange ecosystem and banks’ limitations in providing compliant mechanisms for capital flows created strong commercial demand for stablecoins. This ever-increasing demand paved the way for the second phase of development for US dollar stablecoins, expanding their use into a variety of areas, from cross-border payments and wage disbursements to the purchase of tangible goods. The peer-to-peer transfer feature of blockchain allows it to bypass regulatory oversight and offer enhanced privacy protection, which in turn affords it broader applications in international settlement and value transfer than QQ Coins. With the Stablecoins Ordinance taking effect on 1 August, issuers of compliant stablecoins must have regulator-approved commercial use cases with buoyant business demand in order to operate their stablecoin projects. In other words, they must demonstrate unique advantages over traditional payment channels while simultaneously meeting regulatory compliance requirements. The development of compliant stablecoins will inevitably be accompanied by the implementation of commercial use cases, leading to a dynamic interplay and ongoing adjustments to regulatory requirements. Over time, this process may create a new equilibrium characterized by limited regulatory flexibility. Looking ahead, there is still a long way to go for compliant stablecoins.

Note: Ministry of Culture, State Administration for Industry and Commerce, Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Information Industry, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Supervision, Ministry of Health, People’s Bank of China, Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council, General Administration of Press and Publication, Central Civilization Office, Central Committee for Comprehensive Management of Public Security, Communist Youth League of China, etc.

Translation

穩定幣經濟學本質的思考


穩定幣通常由私營機構企業發行的數字貨幣,1:1錨定某種法幣或者抵押物的資産價值。目前全球99%的穩定幣錨定美元與美元資産,USDT與USDC兩家在目前全球穩定幣超過2200億美元的流通量,占據市場的主流,並且Circle已經完成了美股上市。香港5月21日通過《穩定幣條例草案》,並且于8月1日正式生效;美國于7月18日總統特朗普簽署了《天才法案》,標志著穩定幣合法化在美國持續推進。

區塊鏈技術倒逼的一場支付領域的監管套利


公鏈共識的機制與智能合約使得交易首次在無監管和匿名的環境下完成交易。在公共區塊鏈上,賬本和交易記錄是完全公開透明,用戶無需實名制則可以擁有地址並且自由的轉移代幣(某種經濟價值的代幣);而傳統的賬戶系統,用戶需要先向金融機構完成實名制與合規審查,交易記錄由金融機構保管。當前非持牌的穩定幣,主體上是在監管寬鬆地區儲備美元資産作爲抵押物,然後通過區塊鏈的去中心化網絡面向監管嚴格的地區提供支付服務,例如在非持牌交易所作爲比特幣以及衍生品合約的結算計價單位,實現監管的跨境套利。同時穩定幣因爲在可以在公有區塊鏈上自由流轉,具有規避稅收,匿名支付,逃避資本管制的作用,甚至被詐騙團夥使用,例如2025年6月25日,內地DGCX鑫慷嘉通過穩定幣USDT轉移超過100億人民幣至境外。

穩定幣,現金(黃金)與管制放鬆


另外一種最常見的匿名支付手段即是現金與黃金實物,同樣可以實現匿名的價值轉移,我們將之于穩定幣進行對比。首先,穩定幣借由區塊鏈技術,實現了現金跨越空間的全球快速轉帳;而大量的現金無法實現遠距離甚至跨境的價值輸送;其次穩定幣的可編程性使得其可以在去中心化借貸與交易中廣泛使用,可以根據智能合約完成自動的交易,而現金則不行;但是穩定幣在匿名性却不如現金 — 代幣的鏈上流轉記錄是公開透明,且可以追踪與凍結地址。同時,隨著一個鏈上地址的交互地址越來越多,該地址持用人的身份也會被更多交易對手方知悉,反而匿名性會越來越弱。紙幣與黃金的綫下轉移却不會留下記錄,比鏈上流轉更難于追踪。非持牌鏈上法幣的規模快速增長倒逼監管機構對于合規持牌穩定幣進行立法,監管共識是對于穩定幣抵押物要做出要求(例如:Genius法案要求只能是美元和美債),但是對于誰可以使用穩定幣依然存在爭議:在公鏈無需許可自由匿名流轉會導致難以打擊犯罪與監管套利,而與銀行采用同樣的KYC流程,則背離了區塊鏈去中心精神,讓穩定幣可能成爲「多此一舉」的金融創新。面對區塊鏈的衝擊,持牌穩定幣需要找到一條「管制放鬆」的路徑,即提高交易效率的同時,防範灰産交易的風險。

穩定幣並非新鮮事物


騰訊在2002年就在騰訊生態中發行了Q幣,Q幣的價值與在岸人民幣1:1錨定,客觀上解决了中國互聯網支付不完善,用戶缺乏便捷的在綫支付方式,Q幣允許用戶充值幷且在騰訊系應用中自由轉移和支付。Q幣通過綁定騰訊內部生産內産品(如QQ會員,騰訊游戲)作爲唯一支付手段,從而成爲一般等價物可以作爲游戲道具的交易媒介。更進一步,用戶使用Q幣購買綫下物品與發放工資,同時網吧開始普遍提供Q幣充值與兌換人民幣的服務。騰訊Q幣的人民幣穩定幣發展史結束于2007年2月15日, 14個部門聯合印發了《關于進一步加强網吧及網絡游戲管理工作的通知》[1],其中明確指出:網絡游戲中的虛擬貨幣已出現對經濟金融秩序的産生衝擊的趨勢,網絡游戲經營單位發行的虛擬貨幣不能用于購買實物産品,嚴禁倒賣虛擬貨幣;《通知》實質上阻止了Q幣與人民幣的兌換,二級交易與兌換市場的缺失使得Q幣沒能成爲人民幣穩定幣。而區塊鏈的存在讓穩定幣無法再被任何一個國家簡單的禁止。

穩定幣的應用場景:非合規與合規


實質上Q幣的發展歷史與USDT和USDC具有完全相同的發展歷史。當前流通的穩定幣最早就是爲了解决加密貨幣交易所出入金困難的問題,由于加密貨幣交易不合規,沒有銀行爲其提供托管與合規資金出入通路;然後比特幣等加密貨幣的漲幅和高倍杠杆的合約玩法不斷吸引新玩家入局,例如Circle的USDC綁定Coinbase; USDT可以在幣安與OKX自由使用;因此交易所生態與銀行無法做合規出入金爲穩定幣的發展提供了「剛需」場景。隨著剛需場景的普及,美元穩定幣逐步發展了第二階段:跨境支付,工資發放,購買實物産品等功能。同時由于區塊鏈點對點轉帳的特點,具備規避監管與更强的隱私保護,因此具有了比Q幣更加廣泛的國際支付與價值轉移的應用。隨著8月1日合規穩定幣條例的生效,合規穩定幣發行人需要找到一個監管許可的幷且有商業用途剛需的場景來運營自己的穩定幣項目:需要兼具對比普通支付渠道有獨特優勢,且同時滿足監管的合規訴求。因此合規穩定幣的發展,必然會伴隨著商業場景的落地,與監管的合規要求産生動態的博弈與不斷的溝通調整,最終達成一種新的有限度的“監管寬鬆”狀態,合規穩定幣發展之路尚需時日。

[1] 文化部、國家工商行政管理總局、公安部、信息產業部、教育部、財政部、監察部、衛生部、中國人民銀行、國務院法制辦公室、新聞出版總署、中央文明辦、中央綜治辦、共青團中央等

游楊博士

港大經管學院金融學助理教授

(本文同時於二零二五年七月三十日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)